GasBuddy, the fuel savings platform empowering drivers to choose their road to savings, has released its 2026 Independence Day gas price forecast, projecting the national average price of gas will fall to approximately $3.75 per gallon on July 4.
The national average price of gasoline has fallen 6.9 cents per gallon in the last week, averaging $3.78/g. The national average is down 55.6 cents per gallon from a month ago and stands 64.2 cents per gallon higher than a year ago, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million weekly price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country.
“Average gasoline prices fell in 46 states over the last week, with diesel declining in 49, pushing the national average to its lowest level since mid-March,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “The declines came despite a turbulent week, as fresh attacks were traded between the U.S. and Iran before both sides agreed to halt hostilities just in time Sunday, preventing what could have been a significant spike in oil prices. For now, GasBuddy anticipates the national average will continue drifting lower this week, though the situation remains anything but predictable. A handful of price-cycling states could see prices jump ahead of the July 4 holiday, while many states that already cycled higher last week should see prices fall back down. Motorists in non-cycling states are likely to see continued relief, but the fragile nature of the U.S.-Iran situation means the outlook could shift quickly.”
Locally, average gasoline prices in Greenville are unchanged in the last week, averaging $3.40/g, according to GasBuddy’s survey of 452 stations in Greenville. Prices in Greenville are 44.6 cents per gallon lower than a month ago and stand 60.6 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has decreased 11.4 cents compared to a week ago and stands at $4.876 per gallon.
According to GasBuddy price reports, the cheapest station in Greenville was priced at $3.07/g while the most expensive was $3.84/g, a difference of 77.0 cents per gallon. The lowest price in the state was $3.05/g while the highest was $5.05/g, a difference of $2.00/g.
On the national level, gas prices are expected to be the second most expensive for Independence Day on record behind the all-time high of $4.80 on July 4, 2022.
The projection comes despite six consecutive weeks of national average declines following a spring spike driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure. The recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement has helped ease supply fears and pull prices lower, but the accord remains fragile and risks to the upside are significant. However, with the U.S. Department of Treasury authorizing the sale of oil by Iran, oil prices recently fell below $70/bbl, which may help consumers see lower prices, faster, with global inventories benefitting from the additional oil.
“Six weeks of declines sounds like good news, and in some ways it is, but the context matters,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “At roughly $3.75, this would be the second most expensive July 4 ever recorded, roughly 65 cents higher than last year and nearly $1 above where prices started in 2026. The U.S.-Iran agreement gives markets hope, but it’s being tested, and any breakdown in those talks could reverse the recent relief quickly. Drivers should use every tool available to find the lowest prices near them before filling up.”
While the projected $3.75 per gallon average represents a dramatic improvement from May’s peak of $4.57, it still marks roughly a 65-cent increase from last July 4’s $3.10 per gallon average, and a stark reminder of how significantly the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped the price environment for 2026. Americans will spend hundreds of millions more on gasoline this July 4 holiday weekend compared to last year. Only 2022’s record spike, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pandemic-era demand surges, has produced a more expensive Independence Day at the pump.
